Canadian Housing Market News
Canada's housing market continued to cool in June 2021 following a record-breaking March. After reaching an all-time high in March 2021, the average sold price of a home in Canada has slid for three straight months to end up at $679,051 for June 2021, a drop of 5.5% from the peak of $716,828 back in March. Home sales also declined in June, with the number of transactions in Canada shrinking by over 20% from March levels.
Despite slowing home sales and cooling home prices, Canadian housing prices are still up 26% year-over-year compared to June 2020. This short-term slowdown but year-over-year gains can be seen in housing markets across Canada. Homes in Toronto's housing market sold for 1% below the average price in March, at $1,089,536, yet still remained 17% higher year-over-year. June sold prices in Hamilton are down 2% from March, while up 27% year-over-year, and Ottawa average sold prices are down 2.6% from March, with a 24% year-over-year gain.
Ontario’s housing market softened slightly in June, but other markets across Canada saw mixed performance. Out west, Vancouver benchmark prices increased 4.6% to $1,175,100 from June to March, while Edmonton saw average prices rise 3.2% to $472,637, and Winnipeg rose 4% to $369,310. Meanwhile, Calgary joined Ontario in having a decrease in prices, as sold prices dipped 2.3% to end at $494,111 for June.
Mortgage rates remain stable in Canada. A lending guideline reversal from the CMHC in July abandoned last year's CMHC changes that increased restrictions for mortgage insurance, namely credit score requirements and debt service limits. This reversal will make CMHC insurance more accessible, with it now being easier for borrowers to qualify for a CMHC-insured mortgage. At the same time, an increase to the mortgage stress test benchmark rate effective June 1, 2021 will make it harder to qualify for a mortgage, with the stricter stress test’s qualifying rate change expected to further cool Canada's housing market.
Future rate hikes are expected from the Bank of Canada in late 2022 as bond yields stabilize after doubling in February 2021. The Bank of Canada continues to keep their target overnight rate at 0.25% while scaling down their quantitative easing (QE) program from $3 billion per week to $2 billion per week in government bond purchases. Meanwhile, lumber prices have fallen from their lofty heights, dropping 67% from lumber’s May 2021 peak.
Canada Real Estate Market Trends for All Property Types
Breakdown By Region
Residential Property Price Index
The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) is a housing price index published by Statistics Canada that measures the change over time in selling prices of residential properties. It analyzes both new and resale properties in the census metropolitan areas (CMAs) of Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, and Victoria. The national composite is the weighted average of all the areas measured by the index. The index is relative to a standard of 100 set in 2017.
RPPI for All Residential Properties
Prices for residential properties in Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, and Victoria continue to skyrocket as prices increase across Canada by 7% year over year in Q3 2020. The biggest increases were seen in Ottawa, where home prices have risen by 14.9% compared to Q3 2019. The capital city is expected to remain strong amidst COVID-19 due to its economic stability and high availability of government jobs. Montreal and Toronto also remained hot with 10.2% and 9% increases respectively. Calgary, on the other hand, has faced a decline in home values at least partially attributed to falling oil prices and decreased local investment.
RPPI for Condominium Apartments
Prices for condo apartments in Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, and Victoria increased by 10.4% compared to Q3 2019. This growth outpaces the overall average of 7% for all properties types. The biggest increases were seen in Ottawa, where prices have risen by 17% compared to Q2 2019. Toronto is second with year over year increases of 14.1% despite the impact of COVID-19. Even Vancouver, where properties stagnated for 2018 and 2019 due to their Empty Homes Tax and Speculation taxes, is experiencing a revival in its condo market. In contrast, Calgary faced a year over year decrease of 6.2% due in part to falling oil prices.
New Housing Price Index
The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) is a housing price index published by Statistics Canada that measures the change over time in selling prices of new residential properties. It is published by Statistics Canada and used by governmental agencies, market analysts, and real estate businesses. The index is relative to a standard of 100 set in 2017.
Real Estate in Canada
Real Estate Transactions in Canada
In 2019, residential real estate transactions in Canada reached 486,800, a 6.2% increase from a five-year low recorded in 2018. The number reflects increased activity in Ontario and Quebec, where activity was up by 9% and 11% respectively.
Real Estate Agents
Real estate agents in Canada are licensed professionals who help home buyers and home sellers navigate the real estate market and conduct real estate transactions. Most real estate agents are part of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a professional association that oversees real estate markets nationally. You might be familiar with their trademarks: MLS® and Multiple Listing Service®.
In Canada, there are over 130,000 real estate agents across all the provinces and territories. Ontario has the most agents out of any province with 79,000 agents across 38 local rea estate boards. Of those 79,000 agents, over 56,000 are part of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TREB). British Columbia is second with 23,000 real estate agents and 11 real estate boards.
Real estate agents are regulated on a provincial-level. Each province has their own regulatory board that sets regulations for and oversees the conduct of real estate agents in the province. In Ontario, the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) regulates real estate transactions and helps resolve complaints against real estate agents. In B.C., the Real Estate Council of British Columbia (RECBC) regulates real estate transactions and helps resolve complaints against real estate agents. Other notable councils include RECA (Alberta), SREC (Saskatchewan), and OACIQ (Quebec).
Other Real Estate Statistics
Homeownership Rate: 67.8% (2016)
Vacancy Rate: 3.2% (2020)
Housing Construction
Housing Starts: 63,720 units (Q4 2020)
Housing Under Construction: 292,109 units (Q4 2020)
Housing Completions: 50,938 units (Q4 2020)
Investment in Residential Construction: CAD $11.1 billion (Q4 2020)
Investment in Non-Residential Construction: CAD $4.4 billion (Q4 2020)
Average Rent for a 2-Bedroom Unit
As reported by Statistics Canada and the CMHC
| Region | Average Rent for a 2-Bedroom Unit |
|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area, ON | $1,622 (2020) |
| Ottawa, ON | $1,517 (2020) |
| Vancouver, BC | $1,792 (2020) |
| Victoria, BC | $1,507 (2020) |
| Quebec City, QC | $899 (2020) |
| Montreal, QC | $903 (2020) |
| Edmonton, AB | $1,272 (2020) |
| Calgary, AB | $1,323 (2020) |
| Winnipeg, MB | $1,262 (2020) |
| Saskatoon, SK | $1,166 (2020) |
| Halifax, NS | $1,255 (2020) |
Glossary and Definitions
MLS® HPI: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) is an index by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) that tracks the prices of homes in a neighborhood. It allows Canadians to quickly compare home prices across Canada and between periods of time without having to account for specific features of a property. Unlike market prices, which can fluctuate from month to month based on seasonal dynamics, the HPI provides a stable view tracks trends across a longer period of time. The HPI is reviewed every year in May to adjust for changes in the real estate marketplace.
MLS® HPI Benchmark Price: The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price is the HPI translated into a real-world price number.
Strata Insurance: Strata insurance is insurance used by a strata like a condominium to covers damages to common areas and assets and liability to the strata. It can also include fixtures built or installed as part of the original construction of each unit, even though these may not be common structures. The insurance can cover:
- Buildings and structures associated with the strata including common areas such as the roof, parking garages, driveways, gyms, pools, etc.
- Liability for any property damage or bodily injury suffered on strata property
- Any fixtures that are part of the "standard unit" or original construction of each unit
Strata insurance does not usually include personal items and appliances that are part of a condo unit. It also does not cover the damages made by individual unit owners, such as in the case of water damage caused by a unit owner. These are usually covered by personal condo insurance.
Property types
Detached home: A detached home is your standard single-family home. It is a residential building that stands alone and is separately titled or legally a single unit.
Semi-detached home: A semi-detached home is similar to a detached home, except it shares a wall with another home. This pair of homes must make up an independent building and each should be separately titled or legally two separate units. There can only be two homes in a semi-detached building.
Townhouses: A townhouse is the middle between a detached/semi-detached home and a condo apartment. Like detached and semi-detached homes, they are often single-family units that have their own land and may be attached to other units. However, like condo apartments, they typically have to pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and may share some common features with their neighbors.
Condo apartment: This category includes all apartments and condominiums. These are complexes of residential units with common areas such as hallways, parking lots, stairwells, etc. They can be low-rise, mid-rise, or high-rise buildings. Unlike townhouses, there are no parts of the lot (the land of the building) where access is reserved for only one owner or occupant. There can be privately owned units and spaces inside the building.
Plexes are multi-story buildings with two to four individual units, usually one on each floor. They are a mainstay in Montreal and other cities in Quebec. Each unit is usually individually accessible via an external entrance with higher floors connected by staircases.
Property Classes
Freeholds: A freehold is any property where the owner owns both the house and the land it is built on. Common freehold property types include: detached, semi-detached, some townhouses, and farmland.
Condominiums: A condominium or condo is any property where the owner owns the home (or unit) but shares ownership of the land and other improvements with a condominium corporation. Common condominium property types include condo apartments and some townhouses.
Data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and regional real estate boards. Any analysis or commentary is the opinion of the analysts at WOWA.ca and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a licensed real estate professional before making a real estate investment decision. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.